China’s Stimulus Fuels Market Rally, Yet Long-Term Doubts Remain

China’s Stimulus Fuels Market Rally, Yet Long-Term Doubts Remain

The recent aggressive stimulus measures in China caused a significant stock market rally, yet many analysts remain sceptical of the effectiveness for long-term economic challenges.

Last week, China announced many stimulus measures aimed at propping up its ailing economy and markets. Sceptics, however, believe the measures are small blemishes in a sea of problems that range from an ongoing property crisis to high youth unemployment.

Traders, investors, and speculators have looked past those concerns and propelled China’s stock market to its best month in nearly a decade. The benchmark CSI 300 of mainland China ended Monday 8.5% higher, while the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong surged as much as 4.2%.

These are big gains, considering the very long slump of the Chinese markets until the recent announcements.

“The PBoC and Politburo, all leaning in on putting a floor in property, boosting equities and backstopping households, have hit the right notes,” said Vishnu Varathan, Mizuho’s head of macro research for Asia, ex-Japan.

It was an unusual move for the stock market stimulus initiated by the People’s Bank of China. An editorial published by the state media outlet China Securities Journal attempted to explain the rationale of its decision and pointed out that the capital market was both a “barometer” of the macroeconomy and a “thermometer” of investor sentiment. The editorial underlined the necessity of boosting the capital market in order to strengthen confidence and improve economic expectations.

Pan Gongsheng, the governor of China’s central bank, announced that the authorities would consider injecting more liquidity into the system if swaps and loans for share buybacks prove successful. That statement has provided further hope that the Chinese Communist Party may provide extensive support to the stock market.

Criss Wang, an independent analyst on the Smartkarma platform, said the move was a “signal of the state’s determination to avoid further decline in the stock market and would provide unlimited ammunition to support it.” The stabilisation of the capital market, she added, would have its overall effect on sentiment and boost the economic cycle.

Global Data.TS Lombard economists added that the recent intervention by the PBoC was a sharp deviation from previous policy. They noticed that this usually is a bank that is quick to discourage speculation and is now encouraging it.

However, how long this would be effective is still up for question as there are so many challenges within China’s economy. For instance, official data showed factory activity in China contracted for the fifth consecutive month in September.

Financial markets, though, have held up well in spite of these challenges, and such coordinated stimulus measures do serve to reflect a “risk on” sentiment that may just hold this rally together.

The Hong Kong Stock Exchange will be shut on Tuesday for a public holiday, while mainland China’s stock markets will be closed from Tuesday to Monday.

China’s aggressive stimulus measures have set off a sharp stock market rally, but whether or not the deep-set problems are fixed for the long run is yet to be seen.

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